Climate change and water scarcity

As part of my university studies I had the privelege of attending one of my Professors inaugural lecture, the lecture focused on climate change and the future of water in the tropics. Professor Richard Taylor discussed ways in which climate change is going to permanently alter weather patterns making rainfall less predictable and less regular. In his paper which focuses on rainfall intensity  Taylor discusses the ways in which climate change is going to increase the number of more intense 'extreme' rainfall events at the expense of more regular rainfall. The impacts of this are there will be reduced surface and sub-surface water flows and reduced soil moisture (I will discuss the implications of this in a future blog). As a result of this reduction of surface and subsurface flow there will be an increased dependence on Ground Water and Professor Taylor half jokingly asserted that in order to survive the anthropocene (our current epoch) we should all dig wells (to access this groundwater). However, unfortunately it is not as simple as merely digging a well and hoping for the best. As Calow suggests at present roughly 80% of domestic rural water supplies in Sub Saharan Africa come from groundwater, and 70% of all groundwater withdrawal is used to irrigate agricultural land, this already taxed resource (Taylor 2019).

Unfortunately, at present groundwater resource usage is unsustainable and it is only forecast to become more unsustainable as population in Africa continues to rise at an exponential rate, in essence, groundwater resources are being used at a rate faster than they are being recharged. However, as Taylor suggests - the future climate may aid in groundwater recharge as extreme rainfall events are more likely to cause floods, and during floods groundwater 'reservoirs' recharge huge amounts, citing the 1998 El Nina in Tanzania in which the flood event accounted for 25% of the total recharge over a period of 6 decades.

One of the impacts of declinig groundwater levels is that  it begins to create a scenario in which only the rich are able to afford the deeper wells required as well as the additional energy costs of bringing groundwater to the surface from feeper underground, thereby increasing the development gap. As a result of this increased usage it is more important than ever before that groundwater resources are properly managed. The stakeholders need to decide upon how they wish to utilise the shared resource, if conversations like this do not happen it is very likely that there will be a 'tragedy of the commons' type scenario, in which the common resource becomes depleted through mismanagement.

So, to sum up: In order to have a reliable water supply communities should dig more wells in order to access the groundwater resources. However, they should also ensure that the resource is being utilised in a sustainable way and not a way that is detrimental to themselves in the long run.

I reckon thats enough till next time.

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