Resource based conflict
“The wars of this century have been
on oil, and the wars of the next century will be on water...” (Serageldin)
Food and water based conflict is predicted to overtake other resource based conflict over the next century, it has already been seen with Israel seizing the Golgi Heights in Syria in order to secure it's water supply. This issue is more prevalent than anywhere else in Africa, 60% of the African population lives in a transboundary river basin. The main issue behind water based conflict is assigning water property rights, Shiklomanov suggests that “... water resources are assumed to be the river runoff formed in the territory of a given region plus half the river water inflow from outside." - in essence this means very little as you have to rely on honesty and trust the data provided by nations upstream and in resource based conflict, honesty is often the first thing to go.
An area where this is particularly prevalent is in the Nile Basin (one of the largest river basins in the world), in 1988 the Egyptian Minister for Foreign Affairs asserted that “The next war in our region will be over the waters of the Nile, not politics.” - this is due to the number of nations that stake a claim to the waters of the Nile, which is unsurprising considering the number of lives that depend upon its waters. Egypt, the most powerful nation in the Nile basin often tries to lay claim the the river as a whole yet when examining the river course and percentage of the nation that lies within the basin Egypt does not rank all that high. One of the largest sources of conflict surrounding the Nile basin are the number of states attempting to dam the river to control flow, every riparian state is entitled to the natural flow of a river system crossing its border and with more dams being constructed this often does not happen. Egypt has often sought to regulate and enhance Nile flows through uutilising variable flows from the dam as there is a direct correlation betweeen economics and river flow - low river flow = economic disaster, conversely; flows that are too high lead to flooding which creates a humanitatian disaster.
Water is governed by many complex international laws, this is primarily because it is a human right to have access to clean water (SDG 6). The 2009 Law of Transboundary Aquifers states that "“watercourse States enjoy equal rights to the utilization of an international watercourse and that each watercourse State must respect the correlative rights of the other watercourse States" - thus showing that all riparian states (states through which a river flows) must respect the water usage and demand of other states. An analysis carried out by Yoffe et al of 1830 transboundary interactions concerning water resources from 1948 to 1999 shows that of all options, outright war is the least common solution scoring 0%, the majority (over two thirds) of water based contestation claims are sorted through cooperation and mediation, conflict accounts for around a third of all water based issues. Mediation is carried out through international agreements being adhered to.
So far this post has just covered riparian states and not yet touched the issues surrounding shared aquifer/groundwater usage. This is all about to change! Transbboundary Aquifers create other, more complex issues as it relies purely upon trust between different factions and communities to be honest about ground water withdrawals, as well as this, it is often hard to tell how extensive/large the resource is which makes it hard to allocate portions of the resource across boundaries, there is a huge amount of reliance on sustainable usage at a local level for the betterment and security of that settlement. This is of particular interest in Sub Saharan Africa where groundwater resources are so heavily relied upon (as discussed in a previous blog post).
So, to sum up: water resources are going to increasingly become areas of great contestation, both riparian and trans boundary aquifer states are going to see increasing strain on resources as weather patterns change, and finally water is power.
Thats all till next time.
Food and water based conflict is predicted to overtake other resource based conflict over the next century, it has already been seen with Israel seizing the Golgi Heights in Syria in order to secure it's water supply. This issue is more prevalent than anywhere else in Africa, 60% of the African population lives in a transboundary river basin. The main issue behind water based conflict is assigning water property rights, Shiklomanov suggests that “... water resources are assumed to be the river runoff formed in the territory of a given region plus half the river water inflow from outside." - in essence this means very little as you have to rely on honesty and trust the data provided by nations upstream and in resource based conflict, honesty is often the first thing to go.
An area where this is particularly prevalent is in the Nile Basin (one of the largest river basins in the world), in 1988 the Egyptian Minister for Foreign Affairs asserted that “The next war in our region will be over the waters of the Nile, not politics.” - this is due to the number of nations that stake a claim to the waters of the Nile, which is unsurprising considering the number of lives that depend upon its waters. Egypt, the most powerful nation in the Nile basin often tries to lay claim the the river as a whole yet when examining the river course and percentage of the nation that lies within the basin Egypt does not rank all that high. One of the largest sources of conflict surrounding the Nile basin are the number of states attempting to dam the river to control flow, every riparian state is entitled to the natural flow of a river system crossing its border and with more dams being constructed this often does not happen. Egypt has often sought to regulate and enhance Nile flows through uutilising variable flows from the dam as there is a direct correlation betweeen economics and river flow - low river flow = economic disaster, conversely; flows that are too high lead to flooding which creates a humanitatian disaster.
Water is governed by many complex international laws, this is primarily because it is a human right to have access to clean water (SDG 6). The 2009 Law of Transboundary Aquifers states that "“watercourse States enjoy equal rights to the utilization of an international watercourse and that each watercourse State must respect the correlative rights of the other watercourse States" - thus showing that all riparian states (states through which a river flows) must respect the water usage and demand of other states. An analysis carried out by Yoffe et al of 1830 transboundary interactions concerning water resources from 1948 to 1999 shows that of all options, outright war is the least common solution scoring 0%, the majority (over two thirds) of water based contestation claims are sorted through cooperation and mediation, conflict accounts for around a third of all water based issues. Mediation is carried out through international agreements being adhered to.
So far this post has just covered riparian states and not yet touched the issues surrounding shared aquifer/groundwater usage. This is all about to change! Transbboundary Aquifers create other, more complex issues as it relies purely upon trust between different factions and communities to be honest about ground water withdrawals, as well as this, it is often hard to tell how extensive/large the resource is which makes it hard to allocate portions of the resource across boundaries, there is a huge amount of reliance on sustainable usage at a local level for the betterment and security of that settlement. This is of particular interest in Sub Saharan Africa where groundwater resources are so heavily relied upon (as discussed in a previous blog post).
Climate
change is unfortunately increasing the likelihood of conflicts over
water based resources, this is due to the price put on a limited
resource - perhaps it less a case of orange is the new black and more a
case of water is the new black (oil).The potential for number of
international conflicts are huge (Serageldin), the price put on a dependable source
of water is, understandably, huge across any region - as discussed in
the second blog post, the way in which climate change has impacted the
intensity and dependability of rainfall already threatens stability and
is already causing conflicts over this limited
resource (IPCC, 2014). Professor Tony Allan suggests that “If you run out of water you reach
for a Kalashnikov", which will be a growing trend in water based conflicts.
So, to sum up: water resources are going to increasingly become areas of great contestation, both riparian and trans boundary aquifer states are going to see increasing strain on resources as weather patterns change, and finally water is power.
Thats all till next time.
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